Golden Touch CRAPS

Posts of the Month - August

This month, as usual, required several votes. We try to spread out the honor of POM as much as possible. We would like to encourage new members to post, and the rare poster to post more often. Some months there are several informative quality posts, and some months very few.

This month we are giving the POM to Harvard Leo, and the POD to both Yoow (who has already won twice previously) and Spidey. All of these generated a lot of discussion and brought up some new information not posted before.

Congratulations to all three of you. Goddess

HarvardLeo - 05:05am Aug 20, 2010 PT, GTC Grad - AC 2010, Refresher Grad - Vegas 2010

My local casino recently raised the table minimum from $5 to $10 which caused me to rethink my betting strategy. My bankroll (401g) will allow me to risk $30 on any hand of the dice and for quite some time, I've been making one pass bet, two come bets all with single odds. This means I risk at most $32 if I'm both the 5 & 9 given that I make the odds bet an even $6. This creates a game with a house edge of 0.85% which I can beat at my current skill level.

Being the classic overthinker, when the table limit doubed, I realized that I couldn't simply double my bet size because that would put me wagering far too much. Instead I chose to make a a pass bet without odds and place the 6/8 meaning that I always had $34 at risk, and I was still playing a game with a house edge of less than 1.52%. I surmized that with my SRR of around 6.4 this should be a beatable game, and *I thought* would have a lower variance given that I would be losing less come out rolls due to hitting crap numbers and that I'd have an advantage that I could once again set for 7s.

In theory this seems to be a wise decision, but my casino results haven't turned out that way. This had perplexed me for days until I ran an experiment on my practice table last night betting both systems simultaneously to determine the delta.

Before scrolling down, I'd love for people to take a moment to think about this to see if you catch the flaw in my logic. If you think you find something, I'd love to see the post as there may be more on this that I've yet to discover.....

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So what had I missed? With the place bets when I 7'd out, I always lost $34. This meant that I needed to hit 3 numbers before losing my turn to be profitable. Anytime, I hit a "point 7", it was a loss of $34 which made it even more difficult to earn a profit for the session as my next hand I needed to earn hit six times before sevening out.

On the otherhand with the pass/come strategy, I didn't have that problem. As an example, when I would "point 7" with this strategy, I lost only $5 as my come bet was a push with my passline bet and my only loss was my odds. The fact my short rolls were so much less impactful to my overall session stake made a huge difference. I also found a delta on my longer rolls as well. Anytime, I hit a seven after making a come bet I lost only $16 instead of the $34 from the 6/8 place strategy.

Now that I've spent time thinking about this, I've definitely decided that return to being a come better, but I'm still really torn on a strategy. I believe the best pure mathematical play would be a single pass bet with $20 in odds, but that would have a fairly high variance. I'm leaning towards having one pass and one come bet each with $5 odds so that I stay around the $30. At this moment, I haven't ruled out having a pass bet with two come bets taking without taking odds. This creates the worst option in terms of house edge, but does provide the best opportunity to keep losses to a minimum while attempting to pickup the big hand.

So that's my mistake, I'd love to hear others thoughts on this or if you've done something similar in your playing time....

-Leo

Yooow - 04:49pm Aug 30, 2010 PT

If you are one to be temperamental, short fused, impatient or easily discouraged; dice control and what it takes to become proficient at it may not be for you. That is not to say you can’t possess all of those “qualities” and still be successful, you can. It only means that knowing your inner self in that manner; you must, as you begin your trek, be ever mindful of the rages that will boil over at some point.

Dice control is not easy. I don’t care how gifted or coordinated you are. I don’t care if you were the type of person who has always been good at everything you do. This will not come easy for you. You have to work at it. You have to; there is no other way.

How long it takes and how hard you have to work is between you and your dice gods, assuming you can become one with them; or at least get on speaking terms.

Oh don’t worry; you will speak to them on occasion, probably in tongue.

That is when your inner self will rear its ugly head (ok, my ugly head and your beauteous head) and do its damnedest to discourage you. Many times it will win. That is the point. Be ready for that time when it happens. Know the challenge is coming and overcome it. Do not get discouraged, no matter what happens. It will pass and you will be a better shooter for it. You only lose if you quit.

Getting discouraged is ok, quitting is not. You quit, you seven out forever.

Dice control is not a matter of plunking down some bucks and taking a class or two. Belonging to the board and getting some questions answered, so as to clear things up, will not make you a dice controller. It will not.

Also, be advised that dice control itself does not rub off.

Hooking up with other dice controllers that you may meet on occasion may make you feel good about yourself, but generally speaking, does nothing for ones skills.

Wanting to badly, really really badly, has no bearing or influence on your potential ability to control. It may be motivational, but useless regards the physical elements necessary to be mastered.

If you are a new person reading this and considering the possibility of classes and mastering the fine art, be aware of this and your own personality, and consider your fortunes.

If you have already started, you know then, whereof I speak, don’t you? It can be frustrating at times.

Being taught the correct way; having learned your lessons well, to have taken copious notes and reviewed them faithfully, spending hours upon hours practicing. Now you find out that that is not enough.

We buy, (in addition to the class), throwing and receiving stations, dice, chips, sticks, more dice and all paraphernalia associated with the game. All in an effort to make this magical thing called dice control happen for us.

I, personally, even did an end run, so to speak. I built my own table.

Balls, that didn’t work either! Oh, well...

Those of you who have recently taken a class, all starry eyed and full of expectations, have by now, come full circle to the realization that it ain’t easy.

Veterans of this endeavor know full well of the frustration.

Many have gotten past it; and accepted the challenge that digging the dice out of the drywall or finding “where the hell they landed” as part of a normal practice occurrence; all the while taking heat from the wife for “narrowly missing her”. (or the kids) "Let ‘em play upstairs, daddy’s busy”.

I have no doubt the lady shooters among us are no less capable of throwing a fit on that last seven out.

“Those damn dice were perfect……I quit!!” - And don’t you say a damn word”!

(I am exercising authors’ license here and allowing for what is presumed to be said; not what I know was more likely to have been said. After all, some would have spelled damn with an f)

Fnark would know more about whether I have done this correctly.

As discouraging as that may appear, then, is it worth the effort? Should I even try? Is it worth it to take a class? Could I, personally, be successful?

Short answer, yes, of course you can. Anybody can.

I presume you have all of your fingers and toes and can walk, reasonably well, upright and unassisted, without your knuckles dragging the ground. (Note: Depending on what the instructors have to say, even that characteristic could be helpful.)

That being said, dice control is not an insurmountable task that can only be mastered by professional gamblers. It can be achieved by anyone willing to put in the effort and not be discouraged by temporary setbacks and many trials and tribulations.

Male or female, young or older, experienced, novice, or in my case, total idiot; you can do this.

It will test your character, no doubt, and your resolve to learn. But, you can, and many do succeed.

I know you noticed I used the term “many” and not “all”. To say all would be misleading. Not all who take a class and begin the attempt, finish and become successful controllers.

I told you this takes work and effort on your part. If your only effort is to sign up for class, practice for a couple of weeks and head for the nearest casino, you are wasting your time.

Save the space for someone who is serious.

yooow

Spidey...formerly known as GaryC - 11:34am Aug 9, 2010 PT

Hi All...

I have a question...this is wishful and forward thinking on my part because as of now I have yet to have this much $$$ to cash in...but in the future as my control improves and my winnings increase I hope to need this knowledge on a regular basis!

My question is this...I have always heard that there is a $10,000.00 limit in transactions before the IRS needs to be notified...so for instance if you were making a large withdrawal from your bank you may withdraw $9,900.00 just to stay under the radar. Is this true also of cashing out chips at the window of a casino? So...if I have a spectacular day and break 10 grand or 20 grand or whatever the case may be...do I need to make multiple trips up to the window to cash in my chips?

spidey